The EU is Breaking Up

I have for some time been saying that the EU is a disaster zone and that it is falling apart. It seems that the desire to flee the shackles of Brussels is rapidly turning into a stampede.

I dont expect things to collapse suddenly. I dont think a confederation can collapse quickly because it consists of such a tangled web. Have you ever sweated over untangling a pile of knotted string? Untangling government agreements and protocols is even more complex. I expect a rather protracted and unpleasant untangling.

It makes perfect sense for the old Free Trade Area to remain in place but without the political garbage attached. It would certainly make sense for Britain to join any new non-political consensus.

As I said in my article last week, technology has largely freed us from sweating for survival, so we dont need to keep stealing from our neighbours or putting up high walls to stop them stealing from us. We can use the modern way of dealing with neighbours. We’ll send you what we have, and you send us what you have (in other words ‘trade’), and once a year we’ll all sit down and have a bean feast.

Wouldn’t it be nice to be able to be our own individual selves and come together once a year to celebrate Europe Friendship Day?

The political side of things can be untangled reasonably easily, although politicians will invent a mountain of problems. The trade side of things could simply go back to the original scheme.

The money is going to be a different matter altogether. There are rather too many countries that naturally want control of their own finances. And think of the money everyone would save if the EU bureaucracy was scrapped.

Bulgaria is in a difficult position now. Fancy joining a monetary union just as it is breaking apart. No doubt there is too much to be made by the oligarchs to stop that idiocy now.

How anyone is going to untangle the T2 disaster is a mystery to me. I cant see how it can be untangled. It was an idiotic idea right from the start, and Greenspan (anyone remember him?) always said that would be what finally crashed the euro.

For years I have suggested that the euro should be an independent currency that was purely digital, and purely referential. It should be quite distinct from national currencies, and most certainly should not have the ability to create bonds.

I have always maintained that it could function quite satisfactorily alongside national currencies, and people and businesses could swap between their own currencies and the euro as and when convenient. Such a system works perfectly well in the West Indies and Central America, there is no reason why a similar system couldn’t work across Europe.

So where are we at the moment?

The EU’s economic performance has dropped every year this century, and its share of world trade has also dropped. The number of countries with debt trap economies is at an all-time high. Europe’s political clout has itself been clouted. It makes a lot of noise but counts for almost nothing.

The idiots in Brussels talk about war with the world’s major military economy when they have no resources; no army, no munitions, and no money to pay for them.

Europe has divested itself of its major energy resources, and a major economy only survives by virtue of energy. Europe is also largely dependent upon food from other countries. In other words it cannot feed its own population and isn’t able to provide the means to provide its population with the basic requirements of a modern life.

I have said this before, but the UK imports 80% of its food stuffs and almost as much energy. The rest of western Europe is in a similar situation. The continent cant survive like that. Either they kiss and make up with Russia, and start being nice or Western Europe is heading for the poorhouse.

One is left with a rather unpleasant question: How long can one live on borrowed time? The Western world as a whole is living on borrowed everything. The real problem is that the rest of the world can see no good reason to keep lending. That leads to only one conclusion: A rather unpleasant end game. Losing is never fun, especially when it means losing your way of life. That’s where we are as we enter 2026. I am not sure this isn’t where the chickens of waste and stupidity dont come home to rest.

Virtually all of the eastern European states either actively hate the EU and want out, or feel they are marginally better off within the existing system but with serious reservations.

The Baltic states and Scandinavia seem to be experiencing a nasty bout of schizophrenia. But northern continental Europe is rapidly turning against Brussels.

The standout countries appear to be Hungary, Croatia, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, and increasingly Germany, with other countries in varying states of simmering discontent. Not only that but two countries have applied to join BRICS. How long before a few more follow suit?

Look out your window; which way is the wind blowing?

One thing is clear. The current mess cant survive.

France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands are all substantial economies, and if they all seceded from the union the countries left would not be strong enough to survive in any meaningful way as a union, and all those mentioned countries are on the verge of declaring an exit.

The EU president, although still nominally in place (though how is beyond me), is so mired in corruption that I cant imagine she will last much longer.

At least half a dozen states are governed by deeply unpopular governments. Virtually all of the various members of the union are either bankrupt, or close to bankruptcy. There is a massive push-back against various proposed legislation. The immigration question is rapidly turning into riots, and indeed has already done so in France. Can Britain, Italy and Spain be far behind?

This isn’t just a hitch. This is a rapidly unfolding catastrophe.

Ultimately, the worst problem facing the current structure is the simple fact that those of us who live here are treated far worse than those who shouldn’t live here but do. It is now considerably more difficult for Europeans to get in and out of Europe than it is for illegals in rowing boats with no documents at all. Most of us dont just find that irritating, we find it outrageous. The trouble is, that particular divide cuts across all areas from housing, the benefits system, health care, and even the need to follow local laws, and god knows what else.

I would be very surprised if 2026 doesn’t see the first real breaks simply taking place without any proper negotiations. I think the time for a negotiated re-drawing of Europe’s political map lies in the future, following what actually happens on the ground, rather than the other way round.

There has already been a seminal moment is this respect. At a recent meeting of governments from Europe and the USA president Trump asked which country Von der Leyen represented. Of course, she claimed to represent the EU. “But the EU is not a country,” said Trump quite reasonably, and she was ejected from the meeting.

I think that is the way the union is going to split politically, simply by countries increasingly sidelining Brussels, then some will stop sending taxes to Brussels, and that will be the real end.