Thank you guys for all your comments on last week’s blog. I will pursue that approach in future. I didn’t know how the travel stories would go down, but if you like them I can keep them coming. Here’s the next one; about a very Spanish easter weekend out in the campo: https://johnclare.substack.com/p/dont-forget-the-chainsaw
Ok, I know what is going on right now, but what is going to go on next year, and even more importantly, what is going to upset me in the thirties?
I am asking these questions because I want to be on the right side of history.
Let me start by looking at the world as she is, and it’s not a pretty sight.
The worst thing across the world but mainly in the west is the proliferation of politicians which barely have half a brain cell amongst them, and they are causing serious damage.
A good sign is that it is the war machine that is telling politicians that they must stop being idiots. In the USA it is the Pentagon that is telling the White House to stop the lunacy of baiting Russia and China.
In Israel it is the IDF that is telling the government not to open new war fronts. But the politicians think they know best.
I suspect that the Ukraine war will be over within a month or so. What the heck that poor country is going to do when peace finally reigns boggles the mind. Unfortunately, although Israel ought to put out the white flags, I cant see that happening. Unfortunately the country is ruled by a bunch of psychopaths, and they look to be on a path that will destroy the country.
The USA can survive, despite the plain fact that about three-quarters of the world will be glad to see them knocked off their perch. I cant see how an Israeli state can survive, and nearly a third of the population has already done a runner. My main worry there is that the chief lunatic when pushed into an impossible corner may decide that if he is to go out he will do so with a bang, and it will be a big bang.
I cant plan for that eventuality, neither can anyone else, so let’s hope someone puts a bullet in his head before that could happen. In the meantime I have been persuaded to dig out one of my old protest songs from way back. The lyric was way ahead of its time as you can see from photographs of bombs that have been signed by very unpleasant people. Here’s the link:
Those two disasters are enough to be going on with, but that’s not all. The world order changeth, and it is changing very rapidly.
The UN is a failure. With the existing structure allowing any one of the inner circle able to block whatever business they dislike, the system doesn’t function.
The ICJ isn’t much better. It makes pronouncements, but who enforces them?
The money is problematical as well, since the USA can bully any country it likes (or should I say, doesn’t like) by withdrawing dollar privileges, or using sanctions, and effectively weaponising the means of trade. At least that is beginning to lose its effectiveness with the BRICS countries starting to use mBridge for international transactions, which is faster, cheaper, and better than the SWIFT system, and it is a distributed network, so it is not controlled by any one authority.
The BRICS nations are already using an alternative to the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, and is planning on bypassing many of the current systems that are controlled by the freaks in Washington. At the latest count there were over 135 countries wanting to swap into the new systems.
You could say the writing is on the wall. I have been saying for some time now that the Western Alliance is facing into the past, and indeed seems to be committing suicide. Western companies are closing down in various European countries and moving East. The industrial wipe-out in Germany is gathering momentum at an alarming rate. In fact whichever way you look, Europe is destroying itself. That means that the most important question for any of us stuck in this benighted continent needs to be to look elsewhere. I certainly dont feel like living where things are going to get worse, which leads me into what this blog is about. Quo Vadis? I’ve spent a lot of my time practising law, and I’ve been rather good at it, so I am used to latin catch phrases. For those of you who didn’t study latin in school (you lucky people), the title of this blog in English is ‘Where are you going?’
Are you going to carry on living in a world that is collapsing? I am seriously thinking of moving out, and I mean right out.
My mentor, Sir John Templeton, impressed upon me that in my life I would find the government would turn out to be my worst enemy. He was right, with a vengeance. He also said a very important thing about survival. Live in one country, do business in second country, and be domiciled in a third. Boy, was he also right with that one!
Andrew Henderson is right with his catch-phrase: “Go where you are treated best!” (Nomad Capitalist)
Portugal is touted as one of the best places to run to, but the country is bankrupt, the people are still living way in the past. You cant get anything done, and the government interferes in everything you try to do. Whatever Lisbon likes to pretend, this country is a backwater, and I suspect it is going to stay that way.
I am about to see what Spain is like these days. I’ve lived in Spain off and on since my early teens. Is it too a no-hoper? I’ll keep you posted. In the meantime I am trying to sell up and move from Portugal. My first port of call was going to be southern Spain. I could buy a property there for a third of the price for something similar in the Algarve. Over the coming months I’ll try and show you what I mean.
But do I want to stay in Spain? Somehow I doubt it. The current feel of the EU is that it is not seeking the best for me. Instead, the EU is seeking to destroy me. I’m tentatively looking at Malaysia. But not just yet.
I could sell up here and buy something in Spain for between €150,000 - €200,000. But would that be a sensible move?
If you’ve read my books and articles on real estate you know what comes next. The first thing one does is work out the maths.
Suppose I buy. Let’s see how the math works out.
I buy a nice place for €200,000. That means I own my own home, but I no longer have that money.
Suppose I rented. I could always invest the cash saved. I have several options at my fingertips that would pay me from 12% to 17%. Let’s take the lower figure. 1% of €200,000 is €2,000. At 12% p.a. that works out at €2,000 a month. I can rent something spectacular for that sum, so why should I bother with buying? By renting I still have a home, but I also have the cash which is making me more cash.
I’ll give all the figures in next week’s blog so you can see how I am working out the options.
Next month I shall be looking at properties to buy and properties to rent in Southern Spain. You are welcome to follow my trail. Let’s see what I find, and what I decide is my best course going forward.
Quo Vadis?